For those who are new to the contest, a
useful piece of info: since the introduction of the semi-finals 12 years ago,
the concept of the Big Five has risen in prominence. The Big Five are the
biggest financial contributors to the Eurovision organization and they are
France, Germany, the UK, Spain and Italy. They go straight to the final and so
does the previous year's winner, who is also this year's host: in this case,
it's Sweden.
This may seem like a big advantage, but
it's a double-edged sword: on the one hand, these countries' artists don't have
to go through the agony of the semi-final and the possibility of failure to
proceed. On the other hand, not being in the semi-finals makes the public less
aware of their songs than of the songs of the semi-finalists. That one more
listen is often crucial. Also, voters from other countries can be spiteful for
the Big Five's privilege and not vote for them because of that. For whatever
reason, the Big Five, while they were frequent winners in the past, have only
won once (Germany in 2010) since the semi-finals began.
Having said that, I believe France has a
very good chance at winning this year. It's very near the top in the betting
odds.
Amir Haddad (see above photo), or simply
Amir, is the artist representing France this year. I'm sure that you'll agree
that he's a sexy man. He's also singing a song that does not rely on vocal
acrobatics to get its message across. J'ai Cherché is accompanied by a very
good video that challenges gender stereotypes. France has 5 victories in 58
participations, but it's last victory was in 1977. That's a long time ago.
Perhaps it's time for a win again?
Sweden's first victory came only 3 years
before France's last. It was, of course, Eurovision's Holy Grail: Abba's
Waterloo. They made up for lost time, though. They had 5 more wins, giving them
a total of 6 out of 55 participations, second only to Ireland in number of
wins. Also, the Swedes are the people who form the majority of the production
team responsible for getting the show on the air each year. So, disregard an
entry from Sweden at your own risk.
It's a really good song, by the way. I'd call
it Indie Pop. The singer, Frans, bears an uncanny resemblance to Joseph Gordon
Levitt. This song, as well as the song from France, are among my favorites. I
wouldn't mind if either of them won.
Italy, being the home of the Opera, is
really proud of its musical tradition. There is the notion that the Italians
don't think that Eurovision is good enough for them. If asked, they'll probably
tell you that their own Sanremo Festival is superior.In fact, between their
appearance in 1993 and their appearance in 2011, they only took part once, in
1997. They just didn't see the reason for it.
The voters repay them in kind: out of 41
participations, they only won twice (in 1964 & 1990). In fact, for 4
consecutive years, between 1958 and 1961, it was scandalous how the Italian
entries, universally successful Pop Classics, failed to win: Nel Blu Dipinto Di
Blu [Volare] came 3d, Piove [Ciao, Ciao Bambina] came 6th, Romantica came 8th
and Al Di La came 5th. It seems that Eurovision always failed to understand
Italy and vice versa.
This year's song, like most of their
entries, leaves no doubt to the listener that it's an Italian song. That could
be considered as an advantage, because it stands out from the homogenized Pop
of most of the others. It's also a good song, ably sung by Francesca Michielin.
On the other hand, the voters who just don't like Italian music will dismiss it
summarily. Who will win in this tug o' war? We'll know on Saturday night.
Those of us who watch the UK version of
the Voice, have become acquainted with Joe & Jake a year ago, when they
were just hopefuls. Jake was eliminated in the Knockout round and Joe sung for
two more rounds and was eliminaated in Live Week 2. During their time on the
show they became friends and after they left they decided to form a duo, named
imaginatively Joe & Jake. They entered the show "Eurovision: You
Decide" and were selected through a public vote to represent the United
Kingdom.
The UK has been victorious 5 times, the
first in 1967 with Sandie Shaw and the last in 1997 with Katrina & The
Waves. They have frustratingly had 15(!) times in second place. Lately things
are not going great: it's been 7 years since they've last entered the Top 10
(2009, #5). Even that came between 2 years which had them occupying the last
place. Is it time for UK's fortunes to change? The song is OK but not
spectacular. The bookies give it a fair chance for the Top 10, but not so much
for the very top. Judge for yourselves:
Spain, like Italy, used to present songs
that paid homage to the rich musical heritage of the country. Like Italy, it
didn't do them much good. 2 first places (in 1968 & 1969) out of 55
participations (one of which was a 4-way tie) and 4 last places (3 of which
with nul points) is not that impressive. Like Italy, Spain failed to win with
what became eventually an international hit, much more so than the actual
winner (Eres TĂș by Mocedades, #2 in 1973).
This year's song has an international Pop
flavor rather than a national one, but it's well crafted and well sung.
According to the odds, it probably won't make the final Top 10, but I'm not so
sure... There is potential.
Finally, there is Germany. It has won the
contest twice (1982, 2010) out of 59 participations and came last 6 times, 3 of
those with nul points. A big European Disco hit, Dschinghis Khan, represented
Germany in 1979, but only came 4th.
This year's entry I actually liked. The
fashion sense of Jamie-Lee Kriewitz will probably result in a lot of raised
eyebrows - but, come on! It's Eurovision: eyebrow-raising and eye-rolling are
part of the curriculum. However, the ever-powerful bookies don't give this much
of a chance and you know how they don't like to lose money...
Now you've heard every single one of the
songs that will appear in the final, roughly 24 hours away. I have tried to be
as impartial as possible, not being swayed by national allegiences and the
likes. I was guided rather by my taste in music, whatever that may be. If you
have predicitons or have singled out favorite songs, please do mention them in
the comments. We can then compare our guesses after the final. See you
tomorrow.
I'll kick this off with my own predictions for the Top 50% (the names that will appear in the column to our left on the scoreboard): it should include 4 songs that I really like, those from France, the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy. Russia, Australia and Ukraine will be there, because they are the favorites to win, duh. The Top 13 will probably be completed with Armenia, Malta, the UK, Belgium, Latvia and Israel. Malta and Latvia are not among my favorites, but the buzz is that the songs will do well.
ReplyDeleteSongs that could also be in the Top 13 are the ones from Austria, Bulgaria and Serbia. I've decided to use my personal judgement, rather than the betting odds chart and not include them. Then there are these songs that I rather like but will probably not do very well: Spain, Hungary, Poland and Germany.
Let's see what you think: you have 16 hours left to post your own predictions.
I have a soft spot for Bulgaria. They haven't been with the contest very long but they've come up with a couple of memorable entries over the years, including Mariana Popova's "Let Me Cry" (2007), which featured backing vocals by Azis, a transvestite Chalga singer who has stirred controversy at home with his flamboyant lifestyle. I also like Miroslav Kostadinov, whose "You Are an Angel" made it to the semis in 2010. He too is not afraid to wave his freak flag. So I'm wishing Poli Genova my best!
ReplyDeleteHey @afhi very glad to hear from you! Your wish has been granted, my friend: Bulgaria came 4th (I think -they haven't posted the complete official results yet), which is an all-time record for the country. Miroslav, Mariana & Azis will be celebrating with the rest of the country tonight.
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