Oscar Predictions, The Best Cover Songs of 2018, part 4 & This Week's Statistics

Hello again, my friends! In a couple of days from now, the Oscar nominations will be announced. Like I do every year, I will offer my personal predictions in every category, except for the short films. In each category, I will propose as many titles as there are slots plus one. Also, today, the penultimate part of the list with the best cover songs of 2018, as well as the week's statistics.

The Best Picture category is the only one without a fixed number of nominees - the number can range between 5 and 10. The usual number is 8 or 9. Roma, A Star Is Born, Green Book, and BlacKkKlansman are sure bets, while Vice, Black Panther, and The Favourite are more than likely candidates. Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man, and A Quiet Place will fight for the remaining 1-3 positions.

Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) is the favorite for Best Director, his main rivals being Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) and Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born). The contenders for the other two places are, in order of likelihood, Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), and Adam McKay (Vice).

Christian Bale (Vice) is the favorite for Best Actor, while Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), and

Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) will also most likely be nominated. Fighting for the precious fifth place are Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) and John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman).

There is a very close 3-way race for Best Actress. Glenn Close (The Wife) has a slight edge but Olivia Colman (The Favourite) and Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) are very close behind. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) will be the 4th nominee, while the fifth place belongs to either Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) or Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns).

Mahershala Ali (Green Book) will go up against Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) for the Best Supporting Actor, while Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), and Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) will most likely complete the list. In the unlikely case of an upset, it will probably come from Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther).

Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) appears to be the favorite in the Best Supporting Actress but I wouldn't discount Amy Adams (Vice) just yet. The two rivals for Queen Anne's affection in The Favourite, Rachel Weisz, and Emma Stone, will also compete against each other for Supporting Actress, while the fifth place belongs to either Claire Foy (First Man) or Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place).

If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? will be the main contenders for Best Adapted Screenplay, while A Star Is Born, Black Panther, or Leave No Trace will fill the other two places.

Roma, The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice will occupy four out of five slots for Best Original Screenplay, while the fifth will go to either First Reformed or to Eight Grade.

First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk are the two favorites in the Best Score category, while Black Panther, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, or BlacKkKlansman fill out the list of five.

Shallow from A Star Is Born is the big favorite in the Best Song category, while All The Stars from Black Panther is close behind. I'll Fight from RBG and The Place Where Lost Things Go from Mary Poppins Returns are very close to a nomination, while Dumplin' from Girl In The Movies and Trip a Little Light Fantastic, again from Mary Poppins Returns are the likeliest bets for fifth place. Although, instead of having two songs from Mary Poppins Returns, I would rather Revelation from Boy Erased makes the cut.

Mexico's Roma is the favorite in the Foreign Language category but Poland's Cold War is close behind. Japan's Shoplifters and Lebanon's Capernaum also have a fighting chance. The fifth place would go to either South Korea's Burning or Germany's Never Look Away, although I would be happy if Denmark's The Guilty made it to the final five.

Up until a month or two ago, Incredibles 2 was the one to beat, as far as Best Animated Feature was concerned. Since then, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has risen to be the favorite. These two will compete against Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, and Mirai. The Grinch has a small chance of making it.

The Best Best Documentary Feature favorite has always been Won’t You Be My Neighbor? It still is, although Free Solo is right behind. RBG, Minding The Gap, and Three Identical Strangers follow, with Hale County This Morning, This Evening as a possible disruptor. Shirkers and Of Fathers And Sons are not completely without the power to create a surprise upset.

Here are my suggestions for the other categories, in order of likelihood:

Best Cinematography

Roma

The Favourite

First Man

A Star Is Born

Cold War

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Production Design

Black Panther

Roma

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

First Man

A Star Is Born

Best Costume Design

Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns

The Favourite

Mary Queen of Scots

Bohemian Rhapsody

Fantastic Beasts 2

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Vice

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Film Editing

Roma

First Man

A Star Is Born

The Favourite

Vice

BlacKkKlansman

Best Sound Editing

A Quiet Place

First Man

Black Panther

A Star Is Born

Roma

Mission Impossible: Fallout

Best Sound Mixing

A Star Is Born

First Man

A Quiet Place

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Visual Effects

Black Panther

Ready Player One

Avengers Infinity War

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Solo: A Star Wars Story

In a couple of days, we'll know how wrong  I am. Or not.

Let's continue with the penultimate part of the list with the best cover songs of 2018.

20. Al Green covering Before the Next Teardrop Falls.

Even before he starts singing, you can tell that this is Al Green you are about to hear, and you immediately realize you have missed him. The cover of Before The Next Teardrop Falls, best known from Freddy Fender's 1975 hit, is the Reverend's first release in 10 years. Recorded as part of the Amazon Music "Produced By" series that pairs artists with big-time producers to create music magic, the song was produced by Matt Ross-Sprang at Memphis' Sam Phillips Recording Studio. Ross-Spang uses the Linda Martell more countrified cover version of the song as a template to bring out Green's voice in all its glory. - Walt Falconer

This is a small part of the song:

This is the original version by Duane Dee:

This is the #1 hit version by Freddy Fender. Full disclosure: I don't really like this version:

19. Titus Andronicus covering (I'm) Like a Rolling Stone.

I often get annoyed at artists changing pronouns in their covers. This happens a lot with love or lust song covers as if to ensure the singer's heterosexuality goes unquestioned (god forbid). In this case, though, the pronoun change makes all the difference. On his Like a Rolling Stone, Patrick Stickles changes every "you" into an "I". This seemingly small swap turns a caustic put-down into a critical self-examination. Nailing the details, he even extends that change to quoting Dylan's response to the famous "Judas!" jeer at the start. Pronouns aside, Like a Rolling Stone is the rare Dylan song that few bands cover well - perhaps because it's the rare Dylan song whose original recording is pretty much unimpeachable. Titus Andronicus, though, bring enough punk rage to give it a new edge while keeping the original swing (and the organ too). - Ray Padgett

Here

This is Bob Dylan's monumental original version:

18. Miranda Lambert covering My Father’s Gun.

Buried five songs into the Elton John album Tumbleweed Connection is a song called My Father’s Gun. You won't hear it on the radio, he almost never plays it in concert, and you certainly won't be able to find it on any greatest-hits package. It is a terrific song that tells a poignant tale of a Southern soldier who, after burying his father, takes his father's gun and joins the Civil War. It is not an easy song to sing, but Miranda Lambert absolutely owns it on Restoration: Reimagining The Songs of Elton John and Bernie Taupin. The arrangement plays things pretty close to the vest here, but it's the emotion Lambert puts in every verse that takes this one over the top. – Walt Falconer

This is Elton John's original version:

17. Aidan Moffat & RM Hubbert covering Only You.

A delightfully simple acoustic take on the Yazoo electronica hit. American readers may be unfamiliar with the a cappella cover that besmirched the UK #2 single position for aeons over Christmas in 1983, but this acts as a thoroughly suitable palate cleanser. Almost surprisingly sentimental, when you recall Moffatt was a former mainstay of abrasive Falkirk electro-gutterpunks Arab Strap. I prefer the first chorus ahead of the slightly clunky drums and strings, the lugubrious vocal and guitar evoking the heartfelt glow of a cozy fireside chair, with or without a peaty malt. - Seuras Og

This is the original by Yazoo:

16. VÉRITÉ covering John My Beloved.

I first encountered pop singer VÉRITÉ through a massive dance banger called Weekend. Hardly an obvious choice, then, to cover one of Sufjan Stevens' quietest songs (which is saying something). But she beautifully finds the middle ground, bending John My Beloved to her sound with synths and dance beats, while keeping the core true to Stevens' original mood. The end result sounds like something Robyn might come up with, a dance song full of heart and human emotion. - Ray Padgett

Here

In case you can't have access to the above, listen to it here.

This is the original by Sufjan Stevens:

15. Blackberry Smoke ft. Amanda Shires covering You Got Lucky.

Released to commemorate what would have been Tom Petty's 68th birthday, Charley Starr along with his band Blackberry Smoke enlisted the help of Amanda Shires to record this live-in-the-studio acoustic version of You Got Lucky. Shires adds a mournful almost funeral touch to the song as she plays the Benmont Tench parts on fiddle and supplies the backing vocals. - Walt Falconer

This is the original by Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers:

14. Radical Face covering The Goonies “R” Good Enough.

The Goonies is one of those movies whose goodness is inversely proportional to the age you were when first introduced to it. Still, to this day it's a well-remembered rest stop on the road through puberty, and its Cyndi Lauper-sung theme, much like the Goonies themselves, never says die. Radical Face's cover tosses the plink-plink herky-jerky synths in favor of a quiet verse leading to a great wash of warm, fuzzy chorus. It's a welcome alteration - and you can Truffle Shuffle to it. - Patrick Robbins

This is the original by Cyndi Lauper:

13.The Pains of Being Pure at Heart covering Free Fallin'.

Anyone with a rudimentary skill-set and an acoustic guitar can belt out Petty's Free Fallin'. But Kip Berman of The Pains of Being Pure at Heart took those opening strums and started adding on. This atmospheric, slick version maintains some of the most memorable moments of the original - the ethereal backing vocals in the final verse, the emphasis on "Ventura Boulevard" - but adds swirls of guitars, a danceable drum track, and reverb-drenched handclaps. One thing it leaves out is any overt emotion in the vocals, which turns out to be a great blend with all the other elements. - Mike Misch

This is the original by Tom Petty:

12. Angelique Kidjo covering Born Under Punches.

Whilst her entire album cover of Remain in Light must, fingers crossed, be in the running for covers album of the year [Editor's Note: Oh yeah], to my ears her uber-Afropop spin works more successfully on some cuts than others. This is the one that mostly does it for me, a joyful and exuberant celebration that knocks the Heads into contrived-artifact territory. Robotic computer funk becomes an explosion of a natural and fluid flight into dance. A lesson in how to make an album's weakest track the strongest. - Seuras Og

This is the original by The Talking Heads:

11. The Kills covering List of Demands (Reparations).

It's easy to see why Alison Mosshart and Jamie Hince expressed admiration verging on reverence for Saul Williams' original List of Demands (Reparations). Outside the song's lyrical power, it's a captivating musical puzzle: overtones of panic with cool-headed undertones, and such a mighty groove that even the recorded baby's wails bend to the beat. It's the sort of song you can see wowing Jack White, so it makes a six-degrees sort of sense that his Dead Weather bandmate Mosshart covers it in her day job The Kills. The cover is more melodic, choir-like in places, but it honors the directness of the original. And there's hardly a more trustworthy endorsement than Williams himself complimenting their take. - Merry Mercurial

This is the original by Saul Williams:

Finally, these are our statistics; the number of visits this week fell by 5.5%. The last story did OK and so did our "usual suspects" (George Maharis, Peter Straker, Dave Clark, Joe Jackson, etc.)

As far as countries are concerned, the United States, Brazil, and the Netherlands see their all-time rates rise, while France, Greece, Italy, and Cyprus experience minor losses. The rest of the major players keep their percentages stable.

Here are this week's Top 10 countries:

1. the United States

2. the United Kingdom

3. Canada

4. Germany

5. France

6. Russia

7. Australia

8. Greece

9. Brazil

10. the Netherlands

Here are the other countries that graced us with their presence since our last statistics (alphabetically): Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Austria, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Bulgaria, Burundi, Cameroon, Chile, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Ethiopia, Finland, FYR Of Macedonia, Georgia, Ghana, Guernsey, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Isle of Man, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lebanon, Liberia, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Sint Maarten, Slovakia, Slovenia, Somalia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad & Tobago, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. Happy to have you all!

And here's the all-time Top 10:

1. the United States = 32.8%

2. France = 17.1%

3. the United Kingdom = 11.4%

4. Greece = 8.0%

5. Russia = 2.7%

6. Germany = 1.9%

7. Canada = 1.9%

8. Italy = 0.91%

9. Australia = 0.88%

10. Cyprus = 0.82%

That's all for today, folks. Till the next one!